Armchair GM: Offseason Roster Moves and Rumors

[NotCommitted]

If Stamkos leaves Tampa, I kinda doubt he goes to a team with no realistic chances of contending within the next few seasons.

Captain of a cup winning team, so yeah of course you sign those players if they are available and the money is right.

If the problem of this team was they were full of good mid-6 "grinder" types but lacked offensive talent and leadership, then Stamkos could be just the guy. However I don't think that desribes the Jackets...
If you ignore the "intangibles" and only look at what type of player he is, I'd much rather hunt for a guy who is more of a classic center type. I think the potential value for this team would be higher with that kind of player.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Your logical fallacy is the gambler's fallacy

You said that 'runs' occur to statistically independent phenomena such as roulette wheel spins.

yourlogicalfallacyis.com

yeahyeah, celebrini can wait for the draft. But around 10000 years from now the luck should be close to the average, so the rest of the league better watch out

 

[Monk]

It’s not concrete. It’s…


MORTAR!

 

[koteka]

Orc by Orc

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

One does not simply have mortar…

 

[CBJWerenski8]

They project Bertuzzi at a 5x6 contract

Idk if I’d touch that

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

That says more about our overly young team than it does about Stamkos.

Sure. But there is a reason the league has special rules for over 35 contracts and he's not far from that.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

They project Bertuzzi at a 5x6 contract

Idk if I’d touch that

the entire top 15 is full of wild overpays except for maybe teravainen. stephenson and monahan's projections seem low (monahan's might be a misprint, actually). everything else… no thank you.

 

[majormajor]

They project Bertuzzi at a 5x6 contract

Idk if I’d touch that

Bertuzzi is a real battler but I'm not sure if he's going to be healthy enough for a deal like that.

They project Guentzel 6 x $8m, which seems oddly low to me, I think he'll get more than that. Columbus should make their pitch.

the entire top 15 is full of wild overpays except for maybe teravainen. stephenson and monahan's projections seem low (monahan's might be a misprint, actually). everything else… no thank you.

There is a caveat that the projections were done mid-season and haven't been updated yet.

Monahan had a good season this year but based on his injury filled and disappointing record in the seasons prior to this year, that $3m number isn't unrealistic. He'll get more based on how he played this year. Though his playoffs was disappointing.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Monahan had a good season this year but based on his injury filled and disappointing record in the seasons prior to this year, that $3m number isn't unrealistic. He'll get more based on how he played this year. Though his playoffs was disappointing.

i get the previous seasons thing but the reason why i'm questioning if it's a misprint is that two players from the same draft class (drouin + wennberg) with similar injury histories, similarly volatile production year-to-year and less production this year are both projected for way higher AAVs and more term.

i fully expect monahan to get something like what jt compher got last summer.

 

[majormajor]

i get the previous seasons thing but the reason why i'm questioning if it's a misprint is that two players from the same draft class (drouin + wennberg) with similar injury histories, similarly volatile production year-to-year and less production this year are both projected for way higher AAVs and more term.

i fully expect monahan to get something like what jt compher got last summer.

I would have said Monahan's recent injury history was much worse than them. Scary surgeries. Wrist and hips.

Wennberg has hardly missed a game in years. I agree that Drouin is a surprise to be much higher than Monahan.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

One does not simply have mortar…

If one only has mortar without sand..............

 

[squashmaple]

i get the previous seasons thing but the reason why i'm questioning if it's a misprint is that two players from the same draft class (drouin + wennberg) with similar injury histories, similarly volatile production year-to-year and less production this year are both projected for way higher AAVs and more term.

i fully expect monahan to get something like what jt compher got last summer.

Monahan might have had a pretty good season and managing to get two firsts out of him was a masterclass by Montreal, but the league still sees him as the oft-injured boat anchor Johnny had to drag around for years. 3x2.9 feels high, honestly.

I don't see Drouin chasing money, especially if the Avs win the Cup this year. He had two utterly miserable stops (with significanly worse mental health rumors than even Laine) before he hit free agency and was able to re-join MacKinnon. He'll take less to either stay in Colorado or to go somewhere that's a perfect fit for him. 4x4 is extremely unlikely.

4x4 feels exactly right for Wennberg. He's still an extremely defensively responsible middle-6 C. That's valuable and tends to age well. He'll get the most of these three, and he'll get more than Roslovic.

 

[stevo61]

Monahan might have had a pretty good season and managing to get two firsts out of him was a masterclass by Montreal, but the league still sees him as the oft-injured boat anchor Johnny had to drag around for years. 3x2.9 feels high, honestly.

I don't see Drouin chasing money, especially if the Avs win the Cup this year. He had two utterly miserable stops (with significanly worse mental health rumors than even Laine) before he hit free agency and was able to re-join MacKinnon. He'll take less to either stay in Colorado or to go somewhere that's a perfect fit for him. 4x4 is extremely unlikely.

4x4 feels exactly right for Wennberg. He's still an extremely defensively responsible middle-6 C. That's valuable and tends to age well. He'll get the most of these three, and he'll get more than Roslovic.

I doubt that how they see him, it could just as easily be they see Calgary handling his recovery like garbage and now given the time hes become a solid middle 6 option who has been around for awhile. He wont command top $ but teams will like him

 

[Cyclones Rock]

If this team signs Wennberg, then they're a bigger joke than I even think they are. He's not a "missing piece" or a character guy. He's a middling shut down guy who is turning 30 and who is still getting money from his buyout from this very team I wonder if it's even possible for a team to sign a player who is still getting buyout money from them. It shouldn't be if it is.

Alexander Wennberg Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Alexander Wennberg contract, salary, cap hit, salary cap, aav, career earnings, lifetime earnings, aav, advanced stats, transaction history, trade history, and rfa or ufa free agent status

www.capfriendly.com

None of the big names on the "top 50 free agent" list seem like a worthwhile investment to me given the inherent risk and costs of longer term deals and for a team which is probably just really beginning a rebuild under its new GM.

If culture is a huge issue then a cheap addition like Matt Martin a pending UFA with the NYI-who stood up to Babcock for some list he made Marner do-would make sense. He seems like a no nonsense guy who has got the guts to get in the faces of floaters and whiners.

It would also be very cool to see him on a line with Olivier. It would put some well-needed fear into opponents.

 

[Viqsi]

the entire top 15 is full of wild overpays except for maybe teravainen. stephenson and monahan's projections seem low (monahan's might be a misprint, actually). everything else… no thank you.

I'd pounce on that Roy suggestion at #11 (4x$5.5m) and not think twice about it, myself.

 

[majormajor]

If this team signs Wennberg, then they're a bigger joke than I even think they are. He's not a "missing piece" or a character guy. He's a middling shut down guy who is turning 30 and who is still getting money from his buyout from this very team I wonder if it's even possible for a team to sign a player who is still getting buyout money from them. It shouldn't be if it is.

You say that as if a mid-lineup shutdown guy isn't something we've been missing terribly.

Anyways, as is we don't have room for him and we're also needing to add high character vets (that presumably Wennberg doesn't cover).

None of the big names on the "top 50 free agent" list seem like a worthwhile investment to me given the inherent risk and costs of longer term deals and for a team which is probably just really beginning a rebuild under its new GM.

If culture is a huge issue then a cheap addition like Matt Martin a pending UFA with the NYI-who stood up to Babcock for some list he made Marner do-would make sense. He seems like a no nonsense guy who has got the guts to get in the faces of floaters and whiners.

It would also be very cool to see him on a line with Olivier. It would put some well-needed fear into opponents.

Matt Martin wouldn't crack our roster.

 

[majormajor]

I'd pounce on that Roy suggestion at #11 (4x$5.5m) and not think twice about it, myself.

I'd also be interested in DeMelo at 4 x $5m.

And if all Dakota Joshua gets is $3m x 3 then we ought to be all over that, though I think that is one of the numbers that will have to be revised upward when they do their end of year update.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I'd pounce on that Roy suggestion at #11 (4x$5.5m) and not think twice about it, myself.

I'd also be interested in DeMelo at 4 x $5m.

not bad players!

$16m/year is a lot to commit to three RHD (severson + gudbranson + roy/demelo) given that they have another $2m+ guy (boqvist) at that position, as well a guy who is NHL-caliber when healthy (blankenburg), the top prospect (jiricek) and a likely top-five pick in a RHD-heavy draft.

even if it improves the roster it's an unwise use of resources unless the plan is to trade jiricek, and the whole point of hiring a new GM was ostensibly because jarmo was too impatient in trying to accelerate the roster build.

but that's just my opinion.

And if all Dakota Joshua gets is $3m x 3 then we ought to be all over that, though I think that is one of the numbers that will have to be revised upward when they do their end of year update.

the number one lesson that every front office has (hopefully) learned by this point is to not overpay for shooting percentage. his production this year was in-line with two guys who infamously got overpaid based on outlier shooting years, and his shooting percentage was significantly higher than those guys.

Player	Statline	P/GP	SH%
12-13 David Clarkson	30-16-46 in 82gp	0.56	13.2%
14-15 Matt Beleskey	22-10-32 in 65gp	0.49	15.2%
23-24 Dakota Joshua	18-14-32 in 63gp	0.51	21.4%

his line also got sheltered quite a bit this year (miller/pettersson drew the harder matchups) and his underlying numbers were putrid when he wasn't with garland (56% CF with, 37.3% CF without)

that's not to say he's a bad player, but this team has done the whole "overpay a bottom-sixer who was an effective passenger on a really good team" thing a few times (riley nash, sean kuraly) and it doesn't move the needle.

basically, if the rationale for adding joshua is improve the top six, he's not that guy. if it's to add toughness to the bottom-six, there are far cheaper players out there (i.e. lomberg or duhaime).

 

[majormajor]

not bad players!

$16m/year is a lot to commit to three RHD (severson + gudbranson + roy/demelo) given that they have another $2m+ guy (boqvist) at that position, as well a guy who is NHL-caliber when healthy (blankenburg), the top prospect (jiricek) and a likely top-five pick in a RHD-heavy draft.

even if it improves the roster it's an unwise use of resources unless the plan is to trade jiricek, and the whole point of hiring a new GM was ostensibly because jarmo was too impatient in trying to accelerate the roster build.

but that's just my opinion.

I was thinking through that issue. Since Jiricek looks unready for the NHL for probably another year or so, I think we'd be fine with Severson, Roy/Demelo, and Gudbranson/Boqvist for next season and then re-evaluate whether we should make space for Jiricek a year from now.

the number one lesson that every front office has (hopefully) learned by this point is to not overpay for shooting percentage. his production this year was in-line with two guys who infamously got overpaid based on outlier shooting years, and his shooting percentage was significantly higher than those guys.

Player	Statline	P/GP	SH%
12-13 David Clarkson	30-16-46 in 82gp	0.56	13.2%
14-15 Matt Beleskey	22-10-32 in 65gp	0.49	15.2%
23-24 Dakota Joshua	18-14-32 in 63gp	0.51	21.4%

his line also got sheltered quite a bit this year (miller/pettersson drew the harder matchups) and his underlying numbers were putrid when he wasn't with garland (56% CF with, 37.3% CF without)

that's not to say he's a bad player, but this team has done the whole "overpay a bottom-sixer who was an effective passenger on a really good team" thing a few times (riley nash, sean kuraly) and it doesn't move the needle.

basically, if the rationale for adding joshua is improve the top six, he's not that guy. if it's to add toughness to the bottom-six, there are far cheaper players out there (i.e. lomberg or duhaime).

I'm not banking on Joshua being a great goal scorer. $3m isn't that much even if he reverts to being a 10 goal guy on the 4th line, he's a power forward and you should expect to pay extra for having them.

I'm more concerned about the underlying numbers away from Garland. Heck maybe we should forget Joshua and just get Garland. Although it seems the Canucks have finally figured out that he is a good player.

 

[CBJ goalie]

We already have enough players under contract, I don't feel anyone on the UFA list is required (beside Stamkos).
Need to let our young guys gain their spots, and take the next step.

 

[punk_o_holic]

Always liked Pavelski and Tanev. But Pavelski no longer plays C I believe as he's listed as a RW. Also both old and depending on Dallas playoffs, both are cupless. Even if we offer more, I think they take less with a contender (Pavelski stays...Tanev to Vancouver?) But both would bring great leadership. Also possible play takes a dip due to age??

 

[majormajor]

Always liked Pavelski and Tanev. But Pavelski no longer plays C I believe as he's listed as a RW. Also both old and depending on Dallas playoffs, both are cupless. Even if we offer more, I think they take less with a contender (Pavelski stays...Tanev to Vancouver?) But both would bring great leadership. Also possible play takes a dip due to age??

I hear the most glowing things about Chris Tanev's leadership. At his age he might be willing to do something like a 3 year deal. You're right that he probably wouldn't sign with a non-contender even with an overpay. But I'd make a big overpay short term offer anyways. Maybe Johnny and Guddy can put in a word.

 

[EspenK]

Always liked Pavelski and Tanev. But Pavelski no longer plays C I believe as he's listed as a RW. Also both old and depending on Dallas playoffs, both are cupless. Even if we offer more, I think they take less with a contender (Pavelski stays...Tanev to Vancouver?) But both would bring great leadership. Also possible play takes a dip due to age??

 

[Cheddarcheese]

I was thinking through that issue. Since Jiricek looks unready for the NHL for probably another year or so, I think we'd be fine with Severson, Roy/Demelo, and Gudbranson/Boqvist for next season and then re-evaluate whether we should make space for Jiricek a year from now.



I'm not banking on Joshua being a great goal scorer. $3m isn't that much even if he reverts to being a 10 goal guy on the 4th line, he's a power forward and you should expect to pay extra for having them.

I'm more concerned about the underlying numbers away from Garland. Heck maybe we should forget Joshua and just get Garland. Although it seems the Canucks have finally figured out that he is a good player.

i get what your saying but i don't think our bottom 6 is the problem, i think we actually might have one of the best bottom 6 in the league. our top 6 is a mess imo. if we can find a way to slide boone down to the 3rd i think we are in a great spot. ( fantilli slides him down we just need cole or kent to have massive off season )
domi sure looks nice rn he didn't play like that with us LOL