Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Entry Draft (Ducks pick #3, They didn’t drop! OMG It’s a Miracle!)

[HanSolo]

Really wanting Turcotte and thinking he'd be a future star was when I realised I know nothing about prospects and don't have anything real to go on by when evaluating them. Now I just try to evaluate overall big picture schemes and scheme fits.

Lol Turcotte was one of the guys I was hoping would drop too. But his rankings were all over the place. We weren't the only ones who thought he'd be an ideal pick.

 

[Goose of Reason]

Really wanting Turcotte and thinking he'd be a future star was when I realised I know nothing about prospects and don't have anything real to go on by when evaluating them. Now I just try to evaluate overall big picture schemes and scheme fits.

Dach -> Turcotte -> Z was my hope for our pick in that order. Obviously I'm now ecstatic we have Z but it really does suck how much the other two have been derailed by injuries.

 

[FiveTacos]

Outside of winning the #1 overall pick, which would obviously be C Celebrini, I'm focused on defensive d-man types. We are lacking in that department.

I don't think the top 5 is where you look to find that. We have plenty more picks to get a few of that ilk.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I don't think the top 5 is where you look to find that. We have plenty more picks to get a few of that ilk.

I think he meant guys with higher defensive upsides

I think silayev, levshunov and buium all bring that

 

[FiveTacos]

I think he meant guys with higher defensive upsides

I think silayev, levshunov and buium all bring that

Sure I can see that. I just don't think that's the determining factor here, it should be overall highest end potential. If all goes well we won't be picking this high for a while, this could be our last crack at this level of talent.

Which is not to say a good 2-way dman isn't going to be the best highest end guy. Just might be. But I'm not going to pass up a future superstar forward or OFD just because we might need more defensive oriented guys now.

We have no freaking clue what we're gonna need in 5 years when whoever we pick finally breaks out; don't expect big returns on blueliners until they're 22-23 at the earliest. For all we know half the guys we're currently excited about will flame out or get injured or God knows what, and we'll be like oh crap we need another high end skilled forward. Or we end up trading some guys for cap reasons and need replacements. Or some of the current defensive guys we're so-so on take huge leaps and we don't even have that need anymore. Or some crazy trade opportunity happens and we can get another Pronger to fill the need.

In the end you can always trade quality surplus for need. I'm not worried about systemic need at this point, especially not with that first pick. Right now it's still about accumulating the most desirable high end talent we possibly can with that first pick.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Sure I can see that. I just don't think that's the determining factor here, it should be overall highest end potential. If all goes well we won't be picking this high for a while, this could be our last crack at this level of talent.

Which is not to say a good 2-way dman isn't going to be the best highest end guy. Just might be. But I'm not going to pass up a future superstar forward or OFD just because we might need more defensive oriented guys now.

We have no freaking clue what we're gonna need in 5 years when whoever we pick finally breaks out; don't expect big returns on blueliners until they're 22-23 at the earliest. For all we know half the guys we're currently excited about will flame out or get injured or God knows what, and we'll be like oh crap we need another high end skilled forward. Or we end up trading some guys for cap reasons and need replacements. Or some of the current defensive guys we're so-so on take huge leaps and we don't even have that need anymore. Or some crazy trade opportunity happens and we can get another Pronger to fill the need.

In the end you can always trade quality surplus for need. I'm not worried about systemic need at this point, especially not with that first pick. Right now it's still about accumulating the most desirable high end talent we possibly can with that first pick.

I agree

I just happen to have levshunov as the 2nd best player in the draft by a solid margin

 

[FiveTacos]

I agree

I just happen to have levshunov as the 2nd best player in the draft by a solid margin

Yeah and maybe he's the next Chara, in which case he is in fact the exact type of home run pick we should be going for.

Funny thing is I've seen so goddamn many "safe" picks who were at minimum supposed to be 3rd liners, who eventually could not even make the NHL that I've come to believe there is no such thing.

Basically I'm all for highest ceiling this year. Not at all worried about low floors.
We have enough picks and recent draft hits to afford a bust.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Sure I can see that. I just don't think that's the determining factor here, it should be overall highest end potential. If all goes well we won't be picking this high for a while, this could be our last crack at this level of talent.

Which is not to say a good 2-way dman isn't going to be the best highest end guy. Just might be. But I'm not going to pass up a future superstar forward or OFD just because we might need more defensive oriented guys now.

We have no freaking clue what we're gonna need in 5 years when whoever we pick finally breaks out; don't expect big returns on blueliners until they're 22-23 at the earliest. For all we know half the guys we're currently excited about will flame out or get injured or God knows what, and we'll be like oh crap we need another high end skilled forward. Or we end up trading some guys for cap reasons and need replacements. Or some of the current defensive guys we're so-so on take huge leaps and we don't even have that need anymore. Or some crazy trade opportunity happens and we can get another Pronger to fill the need.

In the end you can always trade quality surplus for need. I'm not worried about systemic need at this point, especially not with that first pick. Right now it's still about accumulating the most desirable high end talent we possibly can with that first pick.

If you're planning things out years ahead, then you have a feel of where things are going as well as what to address. Under Murray, it was easier to address because I had a good feel of how he works and the fact he's a tinkerer. Verbeek is different, but the same such that we're hitting on our top-end picks, hitting on potential d-men after the first round, but still sucking ass at drafting top-6 scoring forwards.

If you track and do breakdown of our youths, then it's easier to identify what needs addressing. Which I already did share and where they were invested within - but... you glossed over it and not realizing what the org needs.

Also, do you not scout the prospects first before typing? Clearly with your response that you believe you can grab any DFD and they'll be top-4 or top pairing? Again, you didn't read my post identifying we didn't have any DFD rise up to being a shutdown defender at any level within our system.

You blab and blab and blab about passing up a future super star or OFD, but you have f***ing clue about Levshunov.

NCAA, Defensemen Under 19 years of age

Damn, Lev is at the top of the list with Zeev.

Now, let's look at the production with their respective teams.

===========
NHL Prospects
===========

NHL Prospects
Denver (Zeev) has 12 NHL drafted players.
Michigan Sate, or MSU, (Lev) has 6 NHL drafted players

It appears Denver's roster is more talented as it doubled up MSU's drafted players.

===========
Scoring
===========

Denver (Zeev)
1. RW Devine (Panthers prospect) with 56 points
2. Left shooting RD Zeev Buium with 50 points
3. C Rizzo (Flyer's prosepct) with 44 points
4. C Broz (Pen's prospect) with 40 points
5. Left shooting RD Shai Buium (Wings' prospect) with 36 points

Michigan State (Lev)
1. LW Howard (Bolts' prosepct) with 36 points
2. RD Lev with 35 points
3. F Dorwart with 34 points
4. RW Larson with 32 points
5. RW Muller with 29 points


The scoring for the team's top-5 scorers heavily favors Denver, but also there are huge gaps between the top-3. For MSU, Lev was leading the team in scoring before the playoffs.

===========
Defense (+/- rating)
===========

Denver (Zeev)
1. LD Shai +33 (Wings' prospect)
1. LD Zeev +33
3. D Buckberger +32
4. LW Webster +31 (Bolts' prsopect)
5. RW Devine +29 (Panthers' prospect)

MSU (Lev)
1. RD Lev +27
2. LD Nienhuis +20
3. F Kelly +13
4. RW Lebster +11
5. Muller +10

Look at that gap between Lev and the rest of his team. Then look at Zeev tied with his brother, Shai, and the how closely compact the other three are in +/- rating.

=============
Conclusion
=============

Denver is a stacked team compared to MSU. I'm more inclined to favor Lev for shining on a weaker team, both offensively and defensively... and Lev is still scratching the surface of what he can become!

Sure, mock Lev for being a two-way guy and think he doesn't have offense, but all the stats says differently. (BTW, he was an OFD in Belarus league and top D scorer under 18 years old in the USHL.) There's a reason why CSB (NA) ranked Lev #2 overall. Here are others that have Lev highly rated.

#2
CSB (NA) Final Ranking (this is just for North American skaters)
FloHockey (Peters)
#3
TSN (McKenzie)
Daily Faceoff
ISS Hockey
Sportsnet (Bukala)
#4
Elite Prospects
THN (Kennedy)
Draft Prospects Hockey

I hope you don't gloss over this post like you did my previous post.

 

[FiveTacos]

If you're planning things out years ahead, then you have a feel of where things are going as well as what to address. Under Murray, it was easier to address because I had a good feel of how he works and the fact he's a tinkerer. Verbeek is different, but the same such that we're hitting on our top-end picks, hitting on potential d-men after the first round, but still sucking ass at drafting top-6 scoring forwards.

Just about everyone sucks at it. Most of the league is looking for more top 6 guys.

If you track and do breakdown of our youths, then it's easier to identify what needs addressing. Which I already did share and where they were invested within - but... you glossed over it and not realizing what the org needs.

I know what the org needs, I just don't think you draft for need this high. You get the best player you can and work it out later. We're still years from needing to tweak the roster balance for a Cup run.

Also, do you not scout the prospects first before typing? Clearly with your response that you believe you can grab any DFD and they'll be top-4 or top pairing?

Of course not, but DFD tend to be available later. They also tend to be easier to trade for in exchange for whatever surplus you have.

Again, you didn't read my post identifying we didn't have any DFD rise up to being a shutdown defender at any level within our system.

A lot of dmen aren't going to be shutdown guys until they're approaching their mid 20s, in most cases it takes longer than developing offense. We really don't know who's what yet among our current prospects, but if you're that certain we don't have one then we should start shipping out the rest of the D prospects now while they may still have value.

You blab and blab and blab about passing up a future super star or OFD, but you have f***ing clue about Levshunov.

I don't claim to, I haven't promoted any prospect or dumped on anyone either. Too many times I've heard all sorts of hype about guys only to be underwhelmed when they actually get to the NHL, or heard that some other guy was fatally flawed only to see him light it up. Hell I'm old enough to remember a scouting report on Jagr describing him as solid but unspectacular.

And I don't have any ego about being some sort of talent scout, so I couldn't give a rats ass if you want to claim you know more about this year's prospects than I do.

He could be the next Chris Pronger, and if we pick him I sure hope so. If you've got a crystal ball and know for sure then please get a job scouting for the Ducks. Failing that at least get a job as his agent because that's a heck of a sales job you're doing there, I'll be happy if he's our pick. If he's not, I won't sweat it though.

 

[gilfaizon]

I'm in on the Lev train. I think he's my choice at #2 as well.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

If you're planning things out years ahead, then you have a feel of where things are going as well as what to address. Under Murray, it was easier to address because I had a good feel of how he works and the fact he's a tinkerer. Verbeek is different, but the same such that we're hitting on our top-end picks, hitting on potential d-men after the first round, but still sucking ass at drafting top-6 scoring forwards.

If you track and do breakdown of our youths, then it's easier to identify what needs addressing. Which I already did share and where they were invested within - but... you glossed over it and not realizing what the org needs.

Also, do you not scout the prospects first before typing? Clearly with your response that you believe you can grab any DFD and they'll be top-4 or top pairing? Again, you didn't read my post identifying we didn't have any DFD rise up to being a shutdown defender at any level within our system.

You blab and blab and blab about passing up a future super star or OFD, but you have f***ing clue about Levshunov.

NCAA, Defensemen Under 19 years of age
View attachment 863667

Damn, Lev is at the top of the list with Zeev.

Now, let's look at the production with their respective teams.

===========
NHL Prospects
===========

NHL Prospects
Denver (Zeev) has 12 NHL drafted players.
Michigan Sate, or MSU, (Lev) has 6 NHL drafted players

It appears Denver's roster is more talented as it doubled up MSU's drafted players.

===========
Scoring
===========

Denver (Zeev)
1. RW Devine (Panthers prospect) with 56 points
2. Left shooting RD Zeev Buium with 50 points
3. C Rizzo (Flyer's prosepct) with 44 points
4. C Broz (Pen's prospect) with 40 points
5. Left shooting RD Shai Buium (Wings' prospect) with 36 points

Michigan State (Lev)
1. LW Howard (Bolts' prosepct) with 36 points
2. RD Lev with 35 points
3. F Dorwart with 34 points
4. RW Larson with 32 points
5. RW Muller with 29 points


The scoring for the team's top-5 scorers heavily favors Denver, but also there are huge gaps between the top-3. For MSU, Lev was leading the team in scoring before the playoffs.

===========
Defense (+/- rating)
===========

Denver (Zeev)
1. LD Shai +33 (Wings' prospect)
1. LD Zeev +33
3. D Buckberger +32
4. LW Webster +31 (Bolts' prsopect)
5. RW Devine +29 (Panthers' prospect)

MSU (Lev)
1. RD Lev +27
2. LD Nienhuis +20
3. F Kelly +13
4. RW Lebster +11
5. Muller +10

Look at that gap between Lev and the rest of his team. Then look at Zeev tied with his brother, Shai, and the how closely compact the other three are in +/- rating.

=============
Conclusion
=============

Denver is a stacked team compared to MSU. I'm more inclined to favor Lev for shining on a weaker team, both offensively and defensively... and Lev is still scratching the surface of what he can become!

Sure, mock Lev for being a two-way guy and think he doesn't have offense, but all the stats says differently. (BTW, he was an OFD in Belarus league and top D scorer under 18 years old in the USHL.) There's a reason why CSB (NA) ranked Lev #2 overall. Here are others that have Lev highly rated.

View attachment 863682

#2
CSB (NA) Final Ranking (this is just for North American skaters)
FloHockey (Peters)
#3
TSN (McKenzie)
Daily Faceoff
ISS Hockey
Sportsnet (Bukala)
#4
Elite Prospects
THN (Kennedy)
Draft Prospects Hockey

I hope you don't gloss over this post like you did my previous post.

I really hope we end up #2 and get him, or he somehow falls to 3 or 4 (if sanjose doesnt win lottery cant see him falling past them tho)

 

[tomd]

I'm in on the Lev train. I think he's my choice at #2 as well.

70% chance the Ducks are picking 4 or 5 so don't get too comfortable on the Lev train.

 

[Terry Yake]

still fully on board the silayev train as long as it's a guarantee he comes over

 

[Gliff]

still fully on board the silayev train as long as it's a guarantee he comes over

He is the biggest wild card in this whole draft literally and figuratively.

I personally don’t want him over the other guys we have a shot at in the top 5.

 

[KickHisAssZegrass]

If they're OK going Russian I'd prefer Demidov.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

If they're OK going Russian I'd prefer Demidov.

Going Forward is definitely a good option as well.
While it is the draft full of Dmen, becoming absolutely stacked at forward is a big strength and the future of the team won't have problems scoring goals and Madden will always find Dmen in the 2nd to 6th rounds anyways.

Cutter/Carlsson/Demidov
Zegras/McTavish/Terry
Killorn/Strome/Colangelo
Hvidston/Gaucher/Leason/Pastujov/Sidorov
- assuming that Vatrano is dealt at the deadline next year for a 1st+ while the other vets like Killorn and Strome are still Ducks for several more years and that Verbeek eventually moves Lundestrom.
Future Ducks could roll 4 lines.

 

[gilfaizon]

Going Forward is definitely a good option as well.
While it is the draft full of Dmen, becoming absolutely stacked at forward is a big strength and the future of the team won't have problems scoring goals and Madden will always find Dmen in the 2nd to 6th rounds anyways.

Cutter/Carlsson/Demidov
Zegras/McTavish/Terry
Killorn/Strome/Colangelo
Hvidston/Gaucher/Leason/Pastujov/Sidorov
- assuming that Vatrano is dealt at the deadline next year for a 1st+ while the other vets like Killorn and Strome are still Ducks for several more years and that Verbeek eventually moves Lundestrom.
Future Ducks could roll 4 lines.

I've said this before but I have a good feeling that Vatrano gets an extension this summer. He's got a great motor and and can put the puck in the net. Worth a lot more than a 1st to a team looking to crawl back into the playoff picture. Also, by all accounts he likes it in Anaheim.

 

[FiveTacos]

I've said this before but I have a good feeling that Vatrano gets an extension this summer. He's got a great motor and and can put the puck in the net. Worth a lot more than a 1st to a team looking to crawl back into the playoff picture. Also, by all accounts he likes it in Anaheim.

Just depends on cost and term as always. If he wants a big payday, it can't be from us, we have too many guys that are going to need raises from their ELCs. Would you be okay with having to trade away one of the prize young players in a few years for cap reasons because you wanted to keep Vatrano?

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Going Forward is definitely a good option as well.
While it is the draft full of Dmen, becoming absolutely stacked at forward is a big strength and the future of the team won't have problems scoring goals and Madden will always find Dmen in the 2nd to 6th rounds anyways.

Cutter/Carlsson/Demidov
Zegras/McTavish/Terry
Killorn/Strome/Colangelo
Hvidston/Gaucher/Leason/Pastujov/Sidorov
- assuming that Vatrano is dealt at the deadline next year for a 1st+ while the other vets like Killorn and Strome are still Ducks for several more years and that Verbeek eventually moves Lundestrom.
Future Ducks could roll 4 lines.

We had problems scoring goals this year with the load of offensive talent we had, but I pin that on our head coach b/c our ES scoring was abysmal.

Ducks
Season	ES GF	ES GA	ESGD	PP GF	PK GA	Shorties	.	GF	GA	GD
2022-23	172​	260​	-88​	36​	78​	1​		209​	338​	-129​
2023-24	151​	204​	-53​	42​	91​	11​		204​	295​	-91​
24 comp	-21​	56​	36​	6​	-13​	10​		-5​	-43​	38​

• Our Even Strength (ES) goal scoring last year was atrocious!

• The PP rose from 31st to 23rd, but still a let down considering the offensive talent available.

• Our PK was 31st again, but looks much worse as it deteriorated throughout the season. Yet, our PK was able to generate 11 Shorties. Despite the 11 SHG's, the PK was worst than last year's production.

Since we really can't control our position, then we go by our list and see who's available. If we win #1 overall, I'm not passing up on Celebrini. After Celebrini, then it's all on the team's preference b/c many mocks have 2-12 all jumbled up.

My list would be
1. C Celebrini
2. RD Lev
3. C Lindstrom, LD Dickinson
4. C Lindstrom, LD Dickinson
5. C Catton, LD Buium, RW Demidov, LD Silayev,

 

[KickHisAssZegrass]

Beckett Sennecke is going to be so good, was hoping he'd be an option at Edm 1st but he's killing it in the playoffs and looking like a definite top 10 guy now

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Beckett Sennecke is going to be so good, was hoping he'd be an option at Edm 1st but he's killing it in the playoffs and looking like a definite top 10 guy now

Theres a few guys i was hoping would slip to the oilers pick but not looking likely... i feel like he goes in the 12-16 range.

I would trade up to grab
Sennecke Greentree MBN

I wonder if there is a way to move Gibson+ to Redwings for 15 + husso

 

[gilfaizon]

Just depends on cost and term as always. If he wants a big payday, it can't be from us, we have too many guys that are going to need raises from their ELCs. Would you be okay with having to trade away one of the prize young players in a few years for cap reasons because you wanted to keep Vatrano?

You can't be scared to extend current talent due to what ifs. Hell, you can even trade Vatrano down the road if all of these young guys pan out as well all hope for them to.

There's bigger anchor contracts on the team that we can deal with via buyout/trade before we get to these young guys extensions (Gibson,Strome)

And yes, of course it will come down to cost and term. I'm predicting its team friendly (vs market rate) based on my comment about him enjoying Anaheim.

 

[ScarTroy]

I keep Vatrano 10/10 times, as long as his ask isn’t unreasonable. He reminds me of our BB days. He would have thrived on those teams.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

It’s so nice to know we’re actually players in free agency now compared to Bob tenure

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Just depends on cost and term as always. If he wants a big payday, it can't be from us, we have too many guys that are going to need raises from their ELCs. Would you be okay with having to trade away one of the prize young players in a few years for cap reasons because you wanted to keep Vatrano?

I think people are really stretching ‘cap reasons’ as an excuse to not keep core players.

Not all of these prospects will pan out to command top and/or stay here lol. Just look at Drysdale