It’s a live thread during the heat of the battle, what did you expect? If you want well thought out takes after the games been decided, check back in a few hours.
Here's mine...
Theme #1: Pats run game is good, and people are kidding themselves if they think that's either easy to stop if you know they won't throw, or that winning without passing is illegitimate.
Literally you have no passing game whatsoever to worry about the run game should not be effective at all.
(and)
It'S been good, but not this good. Take into account they literally aren't throwing and you have to be able to stop this.
A team can know 100% in advance they will face a lop-sided run attack, or alternatively a lop-sided pass attack, and still fail miserably if their personnel match up poorly with their opponent, even with the correct scheme. Analogous to a hockey goalie knowing the opponent will "always" shoot high-glove, or another goalie knowing they'll regularly try to get him to open up his 5-hole, and despite that foreknowledge being largely ineffective in reducing those weaknesses because they are... inherent weaknesses, even if the defensive scheme in front of him is forcing shots wide, or limiting odd-man rushes against.
Theme 1b: Bills rush defense still did a respectable job. Bills have 2 losses this season due to a single long-gainer run for a TD. Titans and Pats. Without the long-gainer by NE, that game had 44 carries for 158 yds. If you knew your opponent would only get 8% of their yards through the air, and 92% on the ground, and on 98% of their total plays they'd have 177 yards, I'd think you'd like your chances. 2 FG on 177 yards. 1 TD on 64 yards (add 5 more if you want to count the entire drive).
Theme #2:
It would be cool if McDermott could adapt and play anything other than nickel when getting abused in the ground
(and)
We play exclusively nickel, which means we’re very undersized when teams have less than 3 WRs on the field
I thought they did play a 3rd LB a decent amount and use 4 d-backs... maybe I'm wrong.
Theme #3:
Ok this is the worst challenge in nfl history. McDermott seems in over his head tonight. Abysmal coaching.
I don't think he got it......but unless there's a view we haven't seen, it's not getting overturned
Common sense tells us there's no way he got that 1st down.
He wasn’t even close to getting it IMO. Which means it will be inconclusive and the Patriots keep it.
They stopped him but they’ll never get a clear look to reverse the bizarre decision to award the first. The official who did wasn’t signaling anything until after Jones was shoved over post whistle.
You already know that timeout is gonna be an end game factor. You can’t challenge that unless you’re 101% certain
Wholly agree with all of the above. I understand McDermott firmly believing Jones was stopped. But, since the ruling on the field was spot of ball enabled 1st down, you can't challenge that without some TV view by your coaches / staff that Jones was short. Especially against the Pats.
Theme #4:
Patriots run game has been destroying the whole league. Bills D isn't doing that badly, really. I think the Bills have to develop a running game on offense. Patriots win games because they can run the ball effectively, something Buffalo doesn't ever commit to doing.
Agree. An effective rushing attack helps time of possession, and likely decreases risk of turnovers (many interceptions are tipped balls. the rushing analog of a tipped ball might be a bad exchange. They happen way less often than tipped-ball interceptions. And I would equate a non-tipped-ball pick with a fumble.)
Theme #5: Coaching, outside of the challenge on 4th down run.
Burning a timeout for nothing. Wtf.
Well this game is over, terrible job by the coaching staff tonight
At any point in the game did anyone think, "wow, Daboll fooled the Pats there", or "Daboll did something unexpected IN A GOOD WAY there"? Nope? Didn't think so either.
We got out coached tonight by Bill.
That's certainly debatable, but also needs to be put in context. Belichek has been learning / coaching football as long as McDermott has been alive. Let that sink in.
To be clear, I detest the Pats, Belicheck, Brady, Gronk, et al.
A few more QB runs, jet motions, or screen passes and they win that game last night. For some odd reason, they decide to rip out entire sections of their offensive playbook on a weekly basis and can't fathom sprinkling them back in when their gameplan fails. It's been happening all season.
More Allen RPOs would have been ideal, especially if the Bills were using "12-personnel" sets.
Bad play calling, bad clock management and Allen with happy feet and worrying about penalties. What a mess.
Bills could have afforded one of those categories of mess-ups, not all three.
I could not disagree more. Pats are up in spite of Bill.
I don't get this take. Belicheck will NEVER beat himself. EVER. He will always have his team prepared. He will never make a wrong decision.
Two times late in the 4th quarter Belicheck had players go down "injured" and stay down, in effect gaining 2 additional long time outs. I strongly suspect those were designed "injuries". Bills need to add that "drill" to their playbook.
Surprised we're not seeing more run pass option tonight.
Completely baffled me too. Even if NE defenders were going to be stout against the run regardless, it would have forced a little less focus on the interior and more awareness of lateral pursuit for contain / to seal the edge.
Theme #6: Weather games like this do happen, and sometimes it accentuates one team's advantage over another, and blunts the opponent's strengths.
If there wasn’t the wind, Bills would be winning this game.
Possibly. We'll see in the rematch.
I dunno what Dabolls plan was. Allen was cutting through the wind with only slight difficulty.
Should have targeted Beasley and/or RB screens a little more. I get the danger of a RB screen if the wind takes the ball and makes it a lateral / backward pass which could be recovered by the defense, but they could have been selective in using it.
I wonder if the game plan adjustments would have been broader if Daboll was on the sidelines vs. in the box. I assume he gets intel from coaches on the sideline, but that introduces a secondhand subjective filter to the information received to make decisions.
I’m so sick of hearing about the weather. Jim Kelly and the K-gun offense shredded teams in this weather.
Remember the Colts snow-globe game a few years ago, when the Bills were in all-red and Fred Jackson scored to the far (non-press-box-side) corner of the tunnel end zone?
Theme #7: Odds and ends observations:
Pats gonna take a safety.
I thought that too. If there wasn't the case of the reset play clock for the Bills non-time-out timeout, I think there would have been another 10-15 seconds of game clock remaining, and I would have expected the Pats to take a long circuitous play to take the safety, then kick off with 5 seconds or so to go.
Theme #8: Small decisions or mistakes have big impacts.
Well, the extra point vs the two came in huge here. I know it was too early chase points but if we get the 2 on our TD, we only need a FG to tie
BINGO! I picked up on this potential influence as soon as the conversion was made. And your post was the only mention of this in the game-day thread, but the decision by Belicheck to go for 2 after their touchdown was a game-changer. First of all, he likely decided pre-game they'd go for two against the wind all game long, given the difficulty kicking and the prowess of their running game. Moreover, he likely didn't view a 2-pt attempt stochastically, correctly assuming there were a greater number of outcomes where he could succeed on the try. The net effect was the Bills could not play for the tie in the 4th quarter, and that impacted the Bills decisions, and likely paralyzed Daboll's frozen brain even further.
So did the missed kick by Bass.
So did Harris' long TD run.
So did Brieda's fumble.
True. Which is why you can't afford mistakes against the Pats. It took a Cam Newton fumble in the final minute in Foxboro for the Bills to win there (I know the Pats would have needed to score, but we all saw it coming.)
Bills have become masters of letting teams off the hook and beating themselves this year
Best in the league at it. Although I think someone (Lions?) have something like 8 1-score-or-less losses this year