Raptors Discussion: v97 Raptor's 2023-2024 Season complete - 6th. worst team.

[Eye Test]

Hindsight no one makes that trade. Don't disagree with that but that's not the reality, he's here for 4 years or they regain an asset and move him. Always a chance if he plays well some team gives up a 1st for him if they need help with a rim protector and proven guy.

Maybe a late first I guess?

Disappointing but it is what it is.

 

[Stephen]

Hindsight no one makes that trade. Don't disagree with that but that's not the reality, he's here for 4 years or they regain an asset and move him. Always a chance if he plays well some team gives up a 1st for him if they need help with a rim protector and proven guy.

As a complete casual, that trade with San Antonio didn’t make any sense the day it was made. Cross sport comparisons aren’t always appropriate but it had the smell of a latter day JFJ trade, tired and directionless management desperately mortgaging the future for no purpose.

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

I feel like the NBA is way behind the times in asset management compared to other sports. Every year you see absolutely boneheaded moves.

 

[The Nemesis]

Yeah but next years pick could be in the high teens for all we know. Giving up a top 10 pick in the middle of a rebuild sucks. This lottery outcome is terrible, this trade is terrible.

There's every reasonable expectation that a pick in the teens of next year's draft is equal in value/talent (or better!) than a 6-10 pick in this draft.

Also I'm not expecting next year's Raptors to be so much better than this year's that they're picking in the "high" teens (ie tail end of the lottery or into the play-in range). I don't think they bottom out in full tank mode but it seems reasonable that short of some crazy acquisitions in the summer that this will again be a team primed to pick in the 5-12 range.

The trade is done and there's no point in litigating it in terms of value proposition when it comes to conveying the draft pick. All that matters is that if I were ranking the preferred outcomes of giving the Spurs what's owed to them my order of preference is:

1) they get 2 seconds (2026 + 2027) because the Raptors bottomed out and were picking top 6 in this year and next year's drafts

2) they get the 2024 1st because this draft sucks.

3) they get the 2025 1st, which is expected to be a much better class than this one.

#1 didn't happen because the Raptors sat 6th and it was pretty much a coin flip that they would move back if anyone jumped the line (which happened). And with whoever they could've drafted this year I figured they would be unlikely to be bad enough next season to sit securely in the top 6 to have the pick protected. So we'd be back to a scenario where the best case is that it's again about 50/50 whether they keep the pick and the more likely scenario is that they probably finish somewhere between missing the play-in and maybe 8th or 9th worst in the league, which would all but assure the Spurs of getting that pick unless they beat the lottery odds. So given the choice between giving up this year's pick and next year's it's no choice at all.

There's also value for the team going forward knowing that they own their 1sts from this point onward and don't have to worry about conditions and conveyance terms.

 

[Squiffy]

We’re going to suck again next year, I don’t get the optimism. Frankly it’s fine, it needs to happen. It’s just the cycle of life of drafting league spots teams. Get a bit of depth with 19 & 31, suck for another year, get a great pick in a great draft and move forward. Glad we got the 1st obligation out of the way.

 

[Bjindaho]

With Bronny measuring in at 6'1.5, I'd say that his odds of getting picked by anyone who isn't looking at it as a legal means of tampering are gone.

While he has length, his standing height being so much lower than expected means that he's a few inches shorter than every player he is trying to emulate. He fared extremely well in the drills, but showed once again that there seems to be a translation issue from drill to game. If he could fix that, he could become a rotation player, but he's starting to seem more like a UDFA candidate (like Van Vleet) than a draft candidate (his stat line is not completely dissimilar to Fred's after year 1 of college).

That being said, given the position the Raptors are in, I'd be okay with the team inviting him to summer league and letting him try to make it (ala Nowell) if he goes undrafted. The Raptors are in a position where they could make a 2 way spot open up to see if there is NBA potential.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[Bjindaho]

110%

There was a thought on Hoopsrumors that Toronto would be a good place for Patrick Williams, so a Brown-Williams trade could be interesting.

 

[saska sault]

Curious if they are going to be dumping salary... or taking a cap dump plus assets. Brown will have a market but at 22 million, he's not a luxury a lot of condenting teams can take. Would be a nice move to acquire a cap dump, young player like Agbaji and a pick potentially. The Raps seem to currently value getting some NBA ready young guys so we aren't completely tanking. Maybe that changes now that we have control of our draft picks going forward but still can't see them going scorched earth when you have Barnes, Barret and Quickley.

 

[Bjindaho]

Curious if they are going to be dumping salary... or taking a cap dump plus assets. Brown will have a market but at 22 million, he's not a luxury a lot of condenting teams can take. Would be a nice move to acquire a cap dump, young player like Agbaji and a pick potentially. The Raps seem to currently value getting some NBA ready young guys so we aren't completely tanking. Maybe that changes now that we have control of our draft picks going forward but still can't see them going scorched earth when you have Barnes, Barret and Quickley.

Toronto can go both ways. With IQ due for a raise, it isn't as important to match.

Depending on what Toronto wants to do, they can move Brown and take whatever matching is necessary, but they also have a 10M exception which would allow them to acquire a contract up to that amount without sending any players (ie they could trade picks straight up for someone with 10M or lower base)

As an example, let's say that Minny wanted to lessen their tax bill next year and replace Alexander-Walker with a min player. They would trade him to Toronto for pick(s) and then sign said min player.

These are especially useful for teams that are either very close to a threshold or who want to lower their bill.

A more real-world example is that Dallas looks like they will be over by about 2M. They could release enough cap holds to get under, but they could also trade a guy like Derek Lively for picks to get under. Every team outside of Boston, Denver, and Phoenix can avoid the hard tax through some gutting, but having some money simply disappear from their tax sheet could be useful.

You could also theoretically see some funny stuff like a Brown being traded for someone better than him, then the exception being traded for a useless contract from the same team so that it is two trades on paper but one in spirit (this one is harder to piece together but something like Brown for McDaniels then Toronto bring in Conley for a 2nd could do this)

 

[Bjindaho]

Also, for clarification, if a team does the latter, it will still likely be recorded as 1 trade in the media even if it 2 on paper.

An example of that is (from Jarred Vanderbilt's BR page):
Traded by the Minnesota Timberwolves with Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler, a 2023 1st round draft pick (Keyonte George was later selected), a 2025 1st round draft pick, a 2026 1st round draft pick, a 2027 1st round draft pick and a 2029 1st round draft pick to the Utah Jazz for Rudy Gobert. Minnesota also received a trade exception Utah also received a trade exception 2025 1st-rd pick is MIN own 2026 1st-rd pick is a right to swap 2027 1st-rd pick is MIN own conditional 2029 1st-rd pick is MIN own

Note: This is actually 2 trades where Vanderbilt and Bolmaro were traded in one and the other players in the other.

 

[Thornbury]

We’re going to suck again next year, I don’t get the optimism. Frankly it’s fine, it needs to happen. It’s just the cycle of life of drafting league spots teams. Get a bit of depth with 19 & 31, suck for another year, get a great pick in a great draft and move forward. Glad we got the 1st obligation out of the way.

Agreed, the nightmare scenario was the Raptors got stuck with #6 in a weak draft. With our 2025 1st round pick retained, the team having a bad season won't be the end of the world.

 

[Darcy Tucker]