Prospect Info: All-Purpose 2024 Draft Thread & Celebrini discussion (also the 14th pick and whatever else is draft related)

[anthonyyy]

Yeah I think the top-10 locks are:

Celebrini, Demidov, Levshunov, Silayev, Dickinson, Lindstrom, Buium, Iginla. Obviously there's only 8 of them. But that means our option at 14 is going to be who's left of:

Yakemchuk, Parekh, Sennecke, Helenius, Eiserman, Catton, or MBN.

I'd be ecstatic with all of those guys. We don't need to big brain this, take one of the guys on that list unless Buium falls to 9 or 10, in which case do what you can to trade up for him.

Can't wait for the draft and the rookie scrimmage!

 

[TealManV]

Interesting tidbits from today’s Jeff Marek show. Jeff had Don Waddell on to talk about his new role for CBJ.

Notes of interest:

• Waddell said they’re “open for business.”
• Regarding the roster heading into next season, “ Well, it's got to look different. You know, we're going to clean up. Like I said, we got some contracts and we got some issues we got to figure out.”
• He also said, “if we keep the pick (#4)”, and made mention that they don’t currently have a second round pick.

Large contracts of note:
Johnny Gaudreau (30): $9.75 x 5 (NMC)
Patrick Laine (26): $8.7m x 2 (M-NTC)
Damon Severson (29): $6.25 x 7 (NTC)
Elvis Merzlikins (30): $5.4m x 3 (M-NTC)

Cap situation:
CapFriendly projects CBJ to have ~$23m in cap space. Notable players to sign; Marchenko, Sillinger, K. Johnson, Chinakhov, Texier, A. Nylander.

I’m just spitballing but does a potential deal between the Sharks and Blue Jackets make sense?

#4
Laine

For

#14
#33

Or

#4
Severson (Grier should be familiar from NJD)

For

#14
#42

Clearing some cap space would allow Waddell to be active in FA to bring in a few of his old Hurricanes players. Grier can weaponize his cap space to make a big move up the draft while filling a temporary hole (top 6 RW or top 4 RD).

I’m just trying to think outside the box here.

 

[knu]

Interesting tidbits from today’s Jeff Marek show. Jeff had Don Waddell on to talk about his new role for CBJ.

Notes of interest:

• Waddell said they’re “open for business.”
• Regarding the roster heading into next season, “ Well, it's got to look different. You know, we're going to clean up. Like I said, we got some contracts and we got some issues we got to figure out.”
• He also said, “if we keep the pick (#4)”, and made mention that they don’t currently have a second round pick.

Large contracts of note:
Johnny Gaudreau (30): $9.75 x 5 (NMC)
Patrick Laine (26): $8.7m x 2 (M-NTC)
Damon Severson (29): $6.25 x 7 (NTC)
Elvis Merzlikins (30): $5.4m x 3 (M-NTC)

Cap situation:
CapFriendly projects CBJ to have ~$23m in cap space. Notable players to sign; Marchenko, Sillinger, K. Johnson, Chinakhov, Texier, A. Nylander.

I’m just spitballing but does a potential deal between the Sharks and Blue Jackets make sense?

#4
Laine

For

#14
#33

Or

#4
Severson (Grier should be familiar from NJD)

For

#14
#42

Clearing some cap space would allow Waddell to be active in FA to bring in a few of his old Hurricanes players. Grier can weaponize his cap space to make a big move up the draft while filling a temporary hole (top 6 RW or top 4 RD).

I’m just trying to think outside the box here.

Getting 4 anyway would be amazing.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Interesting tidbits from today’s Jeff Marek show. Jeff had Don Waddell on to talk about his new role for CBJ.

Notes of interest:

• Waddell said they’re “open for business.”
• Regarding the roster heading into next season, “ Well, it's got to look different. You know, we're going to clean up. Like I said, we got some contracts and we got some issues we got to figure out.”
• He also said, “if we keep the pick (#4)”, and made mention that they don’t currently have a second round pick.

Large contracts of note:
Johnny Gaudreau (30): $9.75 x 5 (NMC)
Patrick Laine (26): $8.7m x 2 (M-NTC)
Damon Severson (29): $6.25 x 7 (NTC)
Elvis Merzlikins (30): $5.4m x 3 (M-NTC)

Cap situation:
CapFriendly projects CBJ to have ~$23m in cap space. Notable players to sign; Marchenko, Sillinger, K. Johnson, Chinakhov, Texier, A. Nylander.

I’m just spitballing but does a potential deal between the Sharks and Blue Jackets make sense?

#4
Laine

For

#14
#33

Or

#4
Severson (Grier should be familiar from NJD)

For

#14
#42

Clearing some cap space would allow Waddell to be active in FA to bring in a few of his old Hurricanes players. Grier can weaponize his cap space to make a big move up the draft while filling a temporary hole (top 6 RW or top 4 RD).

I’m just trying to think outside the box here.

Laine isn’t great but his contract isn’t a cap dump, so I feel like the Jackets wouldn’t even consider the first one.

I wouldn’t do the second one—Severson is a seven year mistake. They’re just going to have to live with that one I think, similar to the Huberdeau contract.

 

[Zarzh]

The evidence of how the draft tends to play out should temper confidence in 17 or 18 year olds past the top handful of picks at best most years. That's the concrete reason to not do such a thing. Everyone has confidence in who they pick whether they trade up or not and many times you trade up to draft a bust.

No it shouldn't, it does the opposite, the best picks are almost always fallers or players with undervalued production. That's the most common incorrect myth on this site and it tries to turn a qualitative analysis into a quantitative one. You could make an argument about including Solberg or excluding Yak from the list but they're incredibly safe picks.

The guys "no one could see coming" from this draft are Europeans with undervalued production Helenius, Solberg, MBN, and Artamonov.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

No it shouldn't, it does the opposite, the best picks are almost always fallers or players with undervalued production. That's the most common incorrect myth on this site and it tries to turn a qualitative analysis into a quantitative one. You could make an argument about including Solberg or excluding Yak from the list but they're incredibly safe picks.

The guys "no one could see coming" from this draft are Europeans with undervalued production Helenius, Solberg, MBN, and Artamonov.

Care to show your work on this?

 

[Star Platinum]

I’m just spitballing but does a potential deal between the Sharks and Blue Jackets make sense?

#4
Laine

For

#14
#33

Regardless of how little one thinks of Patrick Laine, that doesn't seem like nearly enough being offered by the Sharks

 

[Barrie22]

Regardless of how little one thinks of Patrick Laine, that doesn't seem like nearly enough being offered by the Sharks

Although he is an injury proned player, he is still only 26 and when he does play is a point per game player. And he only has 2 more seasons on his contract, nit like he that big of an anchor to just toss him aside for pennies on the dollar

 

[sharski]

Forwards will always been held in higher regard because more often than not they’re closer to finished products than defensemen.

If you look at the stats they also have a higher impact on the game

I demand GMMG hire a coach who goes all in and ices 6 forwards for the full 60 minutes every game

 

[themelkman]

I demand GMMG hire a coach who goes all in and ices 6 forwards for the full 60 minutes every game

I mean we basically had that with a Burns-Karlsson pairing

 

[TealManV]

Laine isn’t great but his contract isn’t a cap dump, so I feel like the Jackets wouldn’t even consider the first one.

I wouldn’t do the second one—Severson is a seven year mistake. They’re just going to have to live with that one I think, similar to the Huberdeau contract.

Thanks for the feedback and insight, Jux!

I agree that the Laine package is a major reach. I wasn’t sure how Waddell would view him.

That Severson contract is really ugly, but I would strongly consider it for that package. Adding #4 would be massive.

 

[TealManV]

Regardless of how little one thinks of Patrick Laine, that doesn't seem like nearly enough being offered by the Sharks

Thanks for the insight, SP!

Yeah, it’s a very light offer. It really depends on how Waddell views Laine. And how much he values $8.7m in cap space the next two seasons.

I think very highly of the player and know he’s had some really tough luck the past few seasons.

What do you think of the Severson package?

 

[Star Platinum]

Thanks for the insight, SP!

Yeah, it’s a very light offer. It really depends on how Waddell views Laine. And how much he values $8.7m in cap space the next two seasons.

I think very highly of the player and know he’s had some really tough luck the past few seasons.

What do you think of the Severson package?

Hard for me to speak to the ability level of a defenseman on another team that I don't follow who isn't a big point producer, but just looking at his age and contract, even if he's worth his deal (and a quick perusal of the CBJ forum suggests that they think that deal was a big mistake), he looks to me like the kind of guy the Sharks should avoid at all costs. Too many years left on his deal and he's already 30 years old.

I think even if they have to make sacrifices in terms of talent, they should be looking to fill in the roster gaps on guys on short deals and doubly so if that guy is on the wrong side of 30. The only long-term contracts that make sense for them right now are ones where they think they could trade that guy down the line and get fair value back.

 

[LadyStanley]

Check out this Podcast: ‘If I were GM’: Pronman, Wheeler, and Bultman pick the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft ‘If I were GM’: Pronman, Wheeler, and Bultman pick the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft

Athletic mock draft

 

[TheBeard]

I'm curious to what people think. If at 14 we get someone like Nygard , Eiserman or even a Catton, what would the value of 33 and 42 get? If Jiricek or Emery are still there at 25 or so, would you try and trade both to move up?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm curious to what people think. If at 14 we get someone like Nygard , Eiserman or even a Catton, what would the value of 33 and 42 get? If Jiricek or Emery are still there at 25 or so, would you try and trade both to move up?

I think 33 and 42 gets the team around 22 or 23. I still don't have that much confidence in the guys that are projected for that range anymore than I am the guys we'd have a shot at for 33. 42, on the other hand, may be a different tier of odds in this draft compared to the players late in the 1st and earlier in the 2nd. I would consider moving 42 with 85 to get to around 35 or 36 to guarantee someone like Emery or Badinka or someone like that if they slip to that point. Or even go for a homerun like Letourneau.

 

[TheBeard]

I think 33 and 42 gets the team around 22 or 23. I still don't have that much confidence in the guys that are projected for that range anymore than I am the guys we'd have a shot at for 33. 42, on the other hand, may be a different tier of odds in this draft compared to the players late in the 1st and earlier in the 2nd. I would consider moving 42 with 85 to get to around 35 or 36 to guarantee someone like Emery or Badinka or someone like that if they slip to that point. Or even go for a homerun like Letourneau.

Everything I seem to be hearing is the Emery is going to end up going in the 20-25 range.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Everything I seem to be hearing is the Emery is going to end up going in the 20-25 range.

And if that's how it plays out, I'm still sure there will be a good prospect to pick from at 33. It's 42 where I'm worried about still getting a similar caliber prospect. But it's also the draft and at that range, you never really know. You're doing a lot of guessing there.

 

[TheBeard]

And if that's how it plays out, I'm still sure there will be a good prospect to pick from at 33. It's 42 where I'm worried about still getting a similar caliber prospect. But it's also the draft and at that range, you never really know. You're doing a lot of guessing there.

The idea of having three 1st rounders including the first overall seems like a generational opportunity,

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The idea of having three 1st rounders including the first overall seems like a generational opportunity,

If they think the right guy for them is in that range where someone is willing to make a deal like that, I'm okay with Grier going for it. I just don't see a guy really worth spending that sort of capital on. I think it makes more sense to trade up from 14 with 42 more than the two 2nds for a 1st but it's not one of those choices where I'd give a shit if they went the other way. They have to trust their work and do what they think is best.

 

[Jargon]

The idea of having three 1st rounders including the first overall seems like a generational opportunity,

I think I’d probably do it for Jiricek. To get him, Nygard and Celebrini would be insane.